Here are two good reasons why Communist rule in China doesn't have long to go.
-- Chinese colleges and universities annually graduate seven million bachelor-degree holders. The Communist Party, now 80 million strong, accepts only one million graduates as members. Since party membership is currently the main path to economic opportunities, six million graduates each year are excluded, making them prime candidates for political opposition.
-- The International Monetary Fund estimates that, in terms of purchasing power relative to other nations (purchasing power parity – PPP), China’s per-capita Gross Domestic Product is $8,382. Only 22 non-democratic countries have higher per-capita PPP, and fully 19 of those are oil-producers, which China is not. The three countries with higher per-capital PPP that are not oil-producers are Belarus, Singapore (where things look bright for democracy), and Lebanon (which had its Cedar Revolution in 2005 and where democracy will be fostered by the fall of Syria’s dictatorship).
The wealthier the citizens, the less they want government interference. The Communist Chinese government will soon find it futile to suppress democracy. This improves the prospects for peace.
Democracies seldom fight with one another. They talk.
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